February 27, 2008
Atlantic Hockey: Down the Stretch
by Avash Kalra/Staff Writer
The reality for the Atlantic Hockey conference is that only one team will make the NCAA tournament, and that's the winner of the conference championship tournament.
And in recent years, the Atlantic Hockey representative has done the league proud.
In 2005, Mercyhurst fell just short of an upset bid of No. 1 seed and eventual tourney runner-up Boston College, falling by a 5-4 score. In 2006, Holy Cross defeated Minnesota in overtime in perhaps the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history. And last year, Air Force — a team that finished the regular season in fifth place, with a 13-10-5 conference record — held a 3-1 first-round lead with under 10 minutes to play against Minnesota before the Gophers rallied for a 4-3 comeback win.
Now, with only one weekend's games remaining, let's take a closer look at this year's current standings:
Keep in mind that, in the new Atlantic Hockey tournament format, the top five teams host the bottom five teams in a best-of-three quarterfinal series, and the "Final Five" advance to the championship weekend March 14-16 at the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, N.Y.
Next to each team is their current point total, as well as their opponent in the final two games this weekend.
1. Army — 33 points (home-and-home vs. Sacred Heart)
2. RIT — 31 points (vs. Bentley)
3. Sacred Heart — 31 points (home-and-home vs. Army)
4. Air Force — 30 points (vs. American International)
5. Mercyhurst — 28 points (home-and-home vs. Canisius)
6. Bentley — 24 points (@ RIT)
7. Holy Cross — 22 points (vs. Connecticut)
8. Canisius — 22 points (home-and-home Mercyhurst)
9. Connecticut — 21 points (@ Holy Cross)
10. American International — 18 points (@ Air Force)
So, a couple things are certain: Army, RIT, Sacred Heart, and Air Force are guaranteed to host a quarterfinal series.
Meanwhile, Holy Cross, Canisius, Connecticut and American International are guaranteed to go on the road for the quarterfinal round.
Three points separate first place and fourth, and three points separate sixth and ninth, so a lot of playoff positioning will be determined this weekend... but the final weekend essentially boils down to two races to watch: the race for the No. 1 seed and the race for the fifth seed and the right to host a quarterfinal series at home.
We'll know examine both of these races individually.
The Race for Fifth Place
The fifth spot is up for grabs between Mercyhurst and Bentley. But Mercyhurst needs only one point in its home-and-home series against Canisius to wrap up the fifth seed.
Still, Canisius coach Dave Smith, whose Golden Griffins squad could finish anywhere between sixth and tenth remains confident and put this weekend's games into perspective.
"We need to play well this weekend and get our game into top shape for the playoffs," said Smith. "It will be an exciting finish and playoff for sure, with every team capable of beating each other. The team that gets hot right now can win our league and go to the NCAA tournament."
If Canisius pulls off the sweep against Mercyhurst, Bentley must sweep RIT to bring itself into a tie for the fifth spot with Mercyhurst. At that point, the tiebreaker system would kick in, and the result is interesting.
Bentley and Mercyhurst would be tied on the first three tiebreakers used (points head-to-head, goals differential head-to- head, and conference wins). The fourth tiebreaker — goal differential in conference games — would likely give the fifth spot to Bentley, as the Falcons currently have a -1 goal differential, compared to Mercyhurst's current -4.
"Bentley feels that it has been playing it's best hockey the last month and is excited to see it's offense pick up in the second half," said Bentley coach Ryan Soderquist.
Again, all Mercyhurst needs to do is earn one point this weekend, or have Bentley earn anything less than four points, in order to secure home ice for the quarterfinal round.
The Race for First Place
Four teams — Army, Sacred Heart, RIT, and Air Force — could still head into the Atlantic Hockey tournament as the No. 1 seed.
The matchup to watch, without a doubt, is this weekend's series pitting first-place Army at third-place Sacred Heart, with only two points between them in the current standings.
For Army, it's really very simple: if the Black Knights finish the weekend with two points, they lock up the regular season title. To put it another way, Army controls its own fate, and the Knights are 9-1-1 in their last 11 games.
Last weekend, Army had a league-record nine-game unbeaten streak snapped, and the player perhaps most responsible for the streak — Army goaltender John Kassel — should be the player to watch this weekend. During the recent unbeaten streak, Kassel posted four shutouts and allowed only five goals in nine games. The junior netminder is currently fourth in the nation in goals-against average (1.94) and also boasts an impressive .923 save percentage. Sacred Heart's junior goaltender, Stefan Drew, is also coming off a strong outing — a 31-save shutout of Holy Cross on Saturday, his third of the season.
Again, with two points or more, Army will be the No. 1 seed. But if Army finishes the weekend with anything less, the door is opened for the remaining three teams. These are the tiebreak scenarios to know:
Army wins tiebreakers with RIT and Air Force. Sacred Heart wins the tiebreaker over Army. RIT wins the tiebreaker with Sacred Heart. Air Force wins tiebreakers with Sacred Heart and RIT.
So, if Sacred Heart sweeps Army, the Pioneers will finish as the top seed unless RIT also sweeps Bentley, in which case RIT finishes in first place because the Tigers win the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0).
Finally, there is one other possibility that would make things much more complicated. If Sacred Heart finishes the weekend with a win and a tie against Army, the Pioneers and Black Knights would both finish with 34 points. Sacred Heart would be the No. 1 seed if only these two teams are tied, but RIT could also finish with 34 points with a three-point weekend against Bentley.
If these three teams finish tied atop the standings, RIT wins the three-way tiebreaker and would be the No. 1 seed.
However, it is also possible for Air Force to finish the season with 34 points if the Falcons sweep American International at home. If Air Force finishes tied with Army and Sacred Heart, the Falcons would enter the tournament as the No. 1 seed. The same result would occur should there be a four-way tie between Army, Sacred Heart, RIT, and Air Force at season's end.
Air Force hosts last-place American International this weekend, so a sweep for the Falcons would position them for a possible first- place finish.
"For Air Force to crack into the top three going into the playoffs, we must do something we have failed to do all season," said Air Force coach Frank Serratore. "And that is sweep a conference opponent at home. Our entire roster will have to contribute to our success this weekend and in the playoffs, as we are a team that succeeds on our depth and not specific individuals."
Clearly, a lot is on the line this weekend, as Atlantic Hockey heads to its fifth-ever conference tournament. Again, any of four teams could enter the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed.
Said RIT coach Wayne Wilson, "I can't remember a race for first or home ice ever being so close. The parity in our league and the fact that anyone can finish first in any given year makes our league special.
"This, along with the fact that only the playoff champion from our league will advance to the NCAA tournament, will make our league playoffs as one of the most meaningful playoffs in Division I."
The article states that Air Force will win a tiebreaker if it is with Army/Sacred Heart and RIT if everyone finishes with 34 point. With the first tie breaker being points head to head how can that be possible. AF will have two losses to Army and a split with SH and RIT. RIT will have two wins against SH a split with AF and a split with Army. Shouldnt RIT win the league if everyone finishes with 34 points?
Feb 28 2008, 11:56 am by
The tiebreaking method in Atlantic Hockey is a bit complicated because some teams play each other four times, while others play each other twice.
In the case of the possible four-way tie between RIT, Air Force, Army, and Sacred Heart, this is how the league breaks the tie:
A mini-tiebreaking tournament is set up between teams that played each other four times, with the winners of those tiebreakers advance to the "final" tiebreaker. So, in this case, you start with the teams that played each other four times: Army vs. Sacred Heart, and RIT vs. Air Force.
Sacred Heart wins the tiebreaker against Army based on head-to-head, and Air Force wins the tiebreaker against RIT based on head-to-head goal differential.
The final tiebreaker, then, is Air Force vs. Sacred Heart. Again, Air Force wins this tiebreaker based on the head-to-head goal differential. You then start all over again for the final three teams. The result would be: 1. Air Force, 2. RIT, 3. Sacred Heart, 4. Army.
Feb 28 2008, 12:13 pm by Avash Kalra, CHN
Thanks for your answer. If RIT wins out then and has 35 points with the other three teams scoring 34 points then obviously RIT wins the league. In this scenarion how does the mini-tie breaking format play out for teams seeded second through fourth?
Feb 28 2008, 2:13 pm by
In this case, the first tiebreaker to sort through is Sacred Heart vs. Army because these two teams faced each other four times, whereas Air Force faced Sacred Heart and Army twice each (again, this is how Atlantic Hockey has chosen to deal with these types of scenarios). So, Sacred Heart wins the tiebreaker with Army based on head-to-head points (they would be 2-1-1 against Army with a win and tie this weekend, giving both teams 34 points for this scenario to even happen). Then, Sacred Heart advances to the "final" tiebreaker against Air Force, which Air Force wins based on head-to-head goal differential. So, the final top four seeds would be: 1. RIT, 2. Air Force, 3. Sacred Heart, 4. Army.
Feb 28 2008, 2:26 pm by Avash Kalra, CHN
Thanks for your quick response. One last scenario is if Sacred Heart sweeps an Army, RIT and AF all end up with 33 points. None of these teams played each other four times so what would be the standings then?
Feb 28 2008, 2:34 pm by
Air Force and RIT did actually play four times, and although they each won two games, Air Force wins the tiebreaker based on goal differential (which is the second tiebreaker that is used). So, Air Force advances to face Army in the second tiebreaker. Army swept the season series with Air Force, so Army wins that tiebreaker. The final standings in this scenario: 1. Sacred Heart, 2. Army, 3. Air Force, 4. RIT. And before you try and look for one, there is no three-team tiebreaker scenario in which each team played the other two teams only twice :). Another scenario for you, though, is Army winning the league and the other three finishing tied for second with 33 points. In THAT case, the final standings -- after all tiebreakers -- would be 1. Army, 2. Air Force, 3. RIT, 4. Sacred Heart
Feb 28 2008, 2:58 pm by Avash Kalra, CHN
Thanks for the information it should be a very exciting weekend with the possibility of four different teams winning the league.
Feb 28 2008, 3:05 pm by
Avash as I read an article from USCHO.com under Atlantic Hockey News 28 Feb they painted a slightly different outcome if everyone ends up in a tie. They state:
"If Army, RIT, Sacred Heart and Air Force end up tied for first, the seedings are Air Force, Sacred Heart, Army and RIT." I am sure it has to due with how the mini tiebreak tournament is set up. Who is correct?
Feb 29 2008, 6:24 am by
The CHN article here is correct. The reason is that, once Air Force wins the four-way tiebreaker, you have to start all over again with the other three teams (USCHO didn't do this for some reason). The fact that Air Force wins the final tiebreaker over Sacred Heart doesn't mean Sacred Heart is then the No. 2 seed. So, starting again with the other three teams, you solve the Sacred Heart vs. Army tiebreaker first, since those two teams played each other four times. Sacred Heart wins that tiebreaker based on head-to-head points. Sacred Heart then faces RIT in the final tiebreaker. RIT wins this one based on head-to-head points. That gives RIT the No. 2 seed. Sacred Heart is No. 3 because it wins the tiebreaker over Army, and Army is No. 4. Hope that makes sense.
Feb 29 2008, 12:03 pm by Avash Kalra, CHN
Thanks it make perfect sense I just didn't understand how USCHO could get it wrong.
Feb 29 2008, 12:31 pm by
AIR FORCE IS NUMBER1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#
Mar 8 2008, 2:25 pm by
