March 17, 2008
NCAA Tournament Bracket ABCs: March 17 Update
Analysis, Breakdown, and Comparison
by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor
We said last week that the top four should stay stable, but that Miami was poised to break back into the top four once it played enough games against TUCs. That would happen, we said, assuming it got past the quarterfinals, and played a TUC in the CCHA semis.
However, that kicked in early, because Northern Michigan became a TUC by virtue of winning its series over Michigan State. That gave Miami some extra TUC wins, got them over the 10-game threshold required for the Record vs. TUC component to count, and bumped Miami up the charts.
NMU will drop out of TUC status if it loses a couple of games, but by then, Miami will have played Notre Dame in the CCHA semis, and all will be well again.
The big deal on the bubble right now is Clarkson's defeat in the ECAC playoffs. This means another ECAC team will take an at large spot, presumably Wisconsin's. It could also happen in Hockey East, with either BU or Vermont set to play in the final.
Below are some ideas on what may happen, and what the implications are for each team. But there are so many possible combinations of outcomes still, that it behooves you to run some scenarios yourself and see what happens — using CHN's "You Are The Committee" application. Give it a try.
1. Michigan
The Wolverines moved back into the top spot because of the RPI flip-flop with Colorado College. CC's RPI only barely went up by going 2-0 vs. Alaska-Anchorage, while Michigan's went up more by defeating Nebraska-Omaha twice — enough to bump Michigan's RPI over CC's.
If Wisconsin stays out of the tournament (see below), it really makes things easier for everyone in terms of placing the top four teams. We spoke last week about the complication of protecting the highest seeds, but also avoiding first-round same-conference matchups.
Wisconsin's losses put it No. 14 at the moment, and with three automatic qualifiers requiring slotting, that bumps out the Badgers. But the Badgers can move up if Notre Dame loses two games — not exactly a far-fetched scenario.
2. Miami
If Miami splits, CC wins two games, and Northern drops out of being a TUC again ... then CC would win that comparison with Miami again.
3. New Hampshire
We said last week that it didn't look like UNH could move up or down. And with everything else going on around the Wildcats, that held true. All their comparison matchups stayed the same. For New Hampshire to win the Miami comparison, it needs to win two and Miami lose two. The bottom line is, it looks like UNH is going to be the No. 1 seed in Worcester, and likely as the No. 2 or 3 overall.
The real issue for UNH is, what happens if a WCHA team is at No. 13, as Minnesota State currently is, and a WCHA team is at No. 4, as it currently is. If UNH is a No. 3 overall, then it will be paired with the ECAC champion — but in order to avoid the same-conference matchup at 4-13, the committee could switch Minnesota State with the ECAC champ. That gives UNH a tougher game.
4-5. Colorado College, North Dakota
As mentioned before, CC dropped two comparisons because it now loses to Michigan and Miami. This dropped the Tigers to No. 4 overall. Taking a close look at the comparison, there's a lot of flux here still. If North Dakota defeats CC in the WCHA final, for example, the RPIs will change enough to flip things, making CC a No. 2 seed in its own regional.
Either way, the committee will have the dilemma mentioned above, where Minnesota State would be in line to play the Tigers. But, trying to avoid that same-conference matchup, the Mavericks could be flipped with the ECAC champ.
There's another scenario with Air Force (see below).
North Dakota and CC would then be aligned for a second-round game in Colorado Springs, after perhaps just having played in St. Paul. This is not really favorable to anyone, and I've recommended in the past that the committee try to avoid these second-round matchups, like it used to do. But it hasn't done that since going to a 16-team field in 2003. It now ignores second-round implications.
6-7-8. Boston College, Denver, St. Cloud State
These teams have some upward mobility if they win the conference tournament, but whether it's enough to get to a No. 1 seed is unlikely. The teams below these guys in the 9-10 spots are both out of their respective tournaments. So where these teams end up Regional-wise is based upon a variety of factors, but coming down to, essentially, where they line up with the top seed. In other words, the committee is going to stick to lining up the 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 second-round matchups ... so wherever No. 1 is, that's where No 8 will be, and so on.
FYI, St. Cloud was helped by Michigan Tech moving into TUC status, since it beat Tech four times. Tech got in by taking one of two from North Dakota. (hat tip: Tom Reale)
9-10. Michigan State, Clarkson
These teams can go as low as the 11-12 range, but are otherwise secure for a bid. And without a chance to play this weekend, it looks like it will be No. 3 seeds for them.
11. Minnesota
If the Gophers drop the play-in game on Thursday, their RPI will dip back below Minnesota State's, and Minnesota will lose that comparison. It will still be ahead of Minnesota State in the overall Pairwise, but will dip a spot to No. 12. It's likely that a WCHA team will be at No. 5, meaning the committee is going to need do some adjusting anyway, which could flip Minnesota right back to the virtual 11 spot. The Gophers might be able to move up a notch, but seem locked into a 3 seed.
I'm told there's one of those crazy scenarios out there where Minnesota doesn't get in. If you figure it out, let me know. It assuredly involves upsets in both Hockey East and the CCHA, squeezing the at-large field down to 12.
12. Notre Dame
The Irish took advantage of the WCHA cannibalism, and righting its own ship with two wins. It also earned significant mileage out of Northeastern and Providence dropping from the TUC list, and Northern Michigan moving in. This swapped what had been a bunch of comparison losses with Hockey East teams. The Irish are definitely OK with one win, but two losses at The Joe, and Notre Dame runs into trouble, dropping to 13 and running the risk of being bumped out if BU or Vermont wins the Hockey East title. The Irish could even drop to No. 14, and totally be out.
13-14. Minnesota State, Wisconsin
In all the scenarios I can come up with, the Mavericks stay ahead of Wisconsin. So if Notre Dame stays put, that means Wisconsin is out. Minnesota State would only be bumped out if BU or Vermont wins Hockey East, and one of them will be in the final, so it's possible.
But both Wisconsin and MSU can still get in, putting seven WCHA teams in the tournament, including one that would be under .500 (Wisconsin). The committee confirmed in a conference call today that, if Wisconsin qualifies with a sub-.500 record, it will still get in the tournament. All Wisconsin needs is two Notre Dame losses and a couple of other bounces.
This would throw things into upheavel, with Wisconsin needing to host its regional. Miami or Michigan would go to Madison if they are both No. 1 seeds, but if two WCHA teams are No. 1 seeds, it makes things really problematic.
15-18. Harvard, Princeton, Vermont, Boston University
Harvard can actually move as high as 12 overall with an ECAC tournament win, but can't move up by splitting the games, so it needs to win the tournament.
The same really holds true for all of these teams, with BU getting hurt by Providence and Northeastern dropping out of TUC status. Vermont and BU play each other in the semis, so one will have a shot at it in the final.
Air Force
Last year, the only deviation the committee made from the straight serpentine order (1-16, 2-15, 3-14, etc...) was to switch Alabama-Huntsville and Air Force. Air Force was the 15 overall, and UAH was 16. Minnesota was the No. 1 seed in the Denver regional, with Denver and CC not making the tournament. So the committee placed No. 15 Air Force in Denver against Minnesota.
The committee now faces Air Force being in its home town of Colorado Springs. But Colorado College is the host team, and only CC needs to be placed there, and CC is in the tournament this year. Will the committee keep Air Force in Colorado Springs again?
This one would be much more unfair. Last year, you were simply swapping Air Force with Alabama-Huntsville. This year, the swap would be more significant. You could have CC as a No. 4 overall, set to play No. 13 overall, say Notre Dame. And that means the top seeds — say Michigan and Miami — "deserve" to play the lower seeds. Hockey is not like basketball — in basketball, all the No. 16 seeds are more or less patsies. In hockey, there's a big gap between a No. 4 seed like Air Force, and a No. 4 seed like Notre Dame — no offense to AFA, which nearly knocked off the Gophers last year.
So the committee couldn't make that switch this year, unless CC finishes as a No. 1 or 2 seed — then it's fine.
CC played Alaska Achorage, which isn't a TUC., not Michigan Tech which is.
Mar 17 2008, 11:24 pm by letsy, San Jacinto, Ca.
Oh, no! We can't have teams the caliber of Michigan and Miami playing a sub-.500 WCHA team on their home ice! That would be an unfair advantage to that lower seed, wouldn't it? Give me a break! Any advantage Wisconsin would have is not a result of the sterile confines of the Kohl Center (the Dane Cty Coliseum I might buy). Bucky's battle-tested mettle results from playing a full WCHA schedule and made them a TUC comparison team from the date the Pairwise first appeared, not only AFTER the conference playoffs have finally arrived! Play someone during the regular season, Miami, and you won't need to worry about irrelevant pseudo-advantages! Methinks there have been a higher-ranked WCHA team or two playing their first round games at the Joe or in Ann Arbor, too -- where were the objections then?
Mar 17 2008, 11:32 pm by Sioux_Me, Grand Forks
ummm ... you're missing the point big guy ... Remember, we're going just by the *numbers* - and, according to the numbers, Michigan is 1, Miami is 2, and say, Wisconsin is 14. So, forget who the teams are and what your *opinion* is of how good these teams are. Let's leave that out of it. ... Just go by the numbers. And, according to that, Michigan as a No. 1 should get to play the No. 16. If it works out that they have to play No. 14 Wisconsin on the road, then that isn't fair -- simple logic would tell you that. It has nothing to do with anyone's opinion. If you want to argue it doesn't matter - then OK - that's your prerogative. ... And no, there haven't been higher ranked teams playing first round games against Michigan at the Joe or Ann Arbor since the field went to 16 -- and if that happened, we'd bring that up as an "issue" too.
Mar 17 2008, 11:42 pm by CHN Editor
How Minnesota doesn't get in:
CCHA: NMU over Miami, ND over Mich in consolation
ECAC: Colgate over Cornell, Princeton over Harvard in consolation
HEA: BU over UNH
WCHA: SCSU over MN, CC over DU and SCSU over No Dak in consolation.
Leaving:
1t. Michigan
1t. Miami
3t. UNH
3t. CC (AQ)
5. North Dakota
6. Denver
7. St. Cloud
8t. Michigan State
8t. BC
8t. Clarkson
11. Notre Dame
17. NMU (AQ)
18t. BU (AQ)
22t. Niagra (AQ)
22t. Colgate (AQ)
?? Air Force (AQ)
MN, MN State, Wisc all are out.
Mar 18 2008, 1:49 am by Steve, Boston
Is there any way Quinny falls out of the top 25? Assuming NMU loses to UM, are they out of the top 25 too? And if they fall out, do you know who would take there place?
Mar 18 2008, 10:35 am by James, Boston
James ... check out our RPI page. That shows who is close to coming on and off the Top 25 of RPI ... and that determines the 25 TUCs.
Mar 18 2008, 10:38 am by CHN Editor
How the heck can anyone put cc number 2 in there region is beyond me..the won the regular season wcha..those tournaments are for teams that dont have a chance to make the tourney..and to put the best two teams in the same regions id totally unfair to cc and ND...and the wcha
Mar 18 2008, 7:31 pm by
Miami's at fault (according to genius WCHA fans) for scheduling teams, when, at the time of scheduling, they were good? Last I looked, MU beat Vermont (still alive in HEA), Harvard (strong in the ECAC), your precious WCHA team (St. Cloud), and two teams that were decent when the schedules were made (Canisius and RPI). How can you fault a team for scheduling the only other programs that will take them on?
Mar 18 2008, 9:44 pm by Adam, Chicago
miami barely beat scsu. miami was completely out worked by scsu throughout the whole game and won in OT. mu would be a .500 team in wcha. quit crying
Mar 18 2008, 10:02 pm by ohio
There are better MN high school teams than in the CCHA. LOL!!!!!
Mar 18 2008, 11:04 pm by Lake,North Dakota
There's no point in arguing with WCHA fans. It's ike trying to talk sense into SEC football fans.
Mar 19 2008, 12:15 am by Adam, Chicago
Adam - please comment on the fact it will be advantageous for either Miami or Notre Dame to tie a potential 3rd place game with NMich rather than win it. It has been posted in multiple forums but it needs visibility elsewhere.
I wonder how the committee would react to a team playing for a tie vs. a win.
Someone needs to ask these questions - go for it Adam.
Mar 19 2008, 9:28 am by stickboy1956, St. Paul
Adam, ohio addressed specific facts in your argument. You are ignoring what he said, instead throwing up your hands and insulting WCHA fans. If you don't have a cogent counterpoint, you have lost the argument, and whining won't help.
Mar 19 2008, 11:54 am by Chris Haake, Grand Forks ND
I really hate standing on the same side of any line with this crazies from Grand Forks, but you simply cannot make the point that Miami is willing to play the best teams it has available. Year in, year out, the only 'high-caliber' teams willing to tangle with WCHA squads consistently are Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, BC and OSU.
I understand what you say about the SEC football fans, but the pounding these teams take every weekend in the WCHA makes all these teams sharper. The only way the WCHA doesn't completely dominate this year's tournament relative to their seeding is if we get shafted like last year, with only three teams in (and ND and Minnesota in the same region).
With Minnesota's AD as NCAA selection committee chairman, I just don't see that happening.
Mar 19 2008, 2:51 pm by ScarletGopher, Minneapolis
Also: SCSU is a middle-of-the-pack WCHA team. Adam, your argument is predicated upon a victory which took Miami - supposedly one of the top teams in the country - overtime to claim. Granted this is just one game, but its the thesis to your anti-WCHA argument!
Your other feature Miami victims are Vermont, Harvard, Canisus and RPI. Really?!? These are teams with similar Pairwise rankings as Michigan Tech and UMD. These are your feature non-conference wins? It makes it hard to build an argument.
Mar 19 2008, 2:56 pm by ScarletGopher, Minneapolis
It's not Miami's fault the conference is terrible this season. Even if they scheduled WCHA/HE teams for all of their OOC games, their SOS would still be below the WCHA average. I think it will hurt Miami in the tournament, unfortunately.
Mar 19 2008, 11:11 pm by 29raider, Ohio
Regarding the match-up issues if Wisconsin makes the tourney, didn't the committee give themselves an out by adding some wording somewhere that said they don't have to avoid intraconference match-ups if 5 or more teams from one conference make the tournament?
If Wisconsin makes it, they will likely be a 6th or 7th WCHA team, so I doubt the committee would have any qualms about sending another WCHA team to play them in the first round.
Mar 20 2008, 12:11 am by Pam, Germantown, MD
Hey ScarletGopher -- you have crazies from Grand Forks? Is that anything like the Morons from Minnesota?
Mar 26 2008, 4:42 pm by College Hockey Fan, MN.
