Pairwise Probability Matrix

These are the results of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day. The winner of each game in the simulation was determined randomly, weighted by KRACH. When that simulation was completed -- playing out the six conference tournaments -- a Pairwise was calculated based upon those results.

The numbers in the chart represent the percentage of times (among the total simulations run) each team placed in that spot in the Pairwise. Note that just placing in the top 16 does not indicate the team made it, due to automatic bids (AQ).

Please see below the chart for more information.

Last updated: February 20, 8:21 pm

RK TEAM In AL AQ 123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960
1Denver 100%57%43%49%38%11%2%0.2%0.0%
2Minnesota-Duluth 100%64%36%46%37%13%3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
3Harvard 100%61%39%5%20%45%19%7%2%0.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
4Minnesota 100%59%41%0.1%2%21%43%20%8%3%1%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Western Michigan 99.6%88%11%0.3%3%7%16%24%18%12%8%5%3%2%1%0.6%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Boston University 99.2%71%28%0.1%2%10%22%23%16%10%7%4%3%2%1%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
7Union 99%74%25%0.0%0.8%3%8%15%20%17%13%9%6%4%2%1%0.6%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
8Mass.-Lowell 90%73%17%0.0%0.2%2%6%9%11%12%11%10%9%8%7%5%4%3%2%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
9Penn State 86%67%19%0.0%0.2%1%4%8%11%12%11%11%9%8%6%5%4%3%2%2%1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
10Cornell 87%69%18%0.1%1%4%7%9%11%12%11%10%9%7%6%4%3%2%1%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
11Providence 79%66%13%0.0%0.4%2%4%6%7%8%9%10%11%11%11%8%6%4%2%1.0%0.4%0.1%
12Air Force 70%30%40%0.0%0.4%2%6%9%11%12%12%11%9%8%7%5%3%2%1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13Ohio State 56%39%17%0.1%0.3%1.0%2%3%5%7%8%8%9%9%9%9%8%7%6%4%2%1%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Notre Dame 44%31%13%0.0%0.4%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%9%9%9%9%8%7%4%2%0.5%0.1%
15Vermont 39%30%9%0.0%0.2%0.7%1%2%3%5%5%6%7%8%8%9%10%10%9%7%5%2%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
16St. Cloud State 36%33%3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%1.0%1%2%3%4%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%10%10%8%6%3%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
17North Dakota 37%33%4%0.0%0.2%0.6%1%2%3%4%5%5%7%8%9%10%10%10%8%7%5%3%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
18Boston College 37%25%13%0.0%0.3%0.8%2%3%3%5%6%7%8%10%10%11%10%9%7%5%3%0.9%0.2%0.0%
19Wisconsin 38%15%22%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.8%1%2%3%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%10%10%8%6%3%2%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%
20Nebraska-Omaha 13%11%2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.5%0.8%1%2%2%3%3%5%6%8%10%12%14%13%10%6%3%1%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%
21St. Lawrence 11%2%9%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.5%0.8%1%2%3%4%6%8%11%14%15%13%9%6%3%2%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
22Northeastern 6%1%4%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.9%1%2%3%3%5%6%9%12%16%14%11%7%4%2%1%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
23Bemidji State 34%34%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.8%2%4%8%11%13%12%12%10%8%7%5%3%2%1%0.6%0.1%0.0%
24Quinnipiac 5%5%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%1%3%5%8%10%12%13%12%10%8%6%4%3%2%0.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%
25Canisius 20%20%0.1%0.2%1.0%3%7%11%14%14%13%11%9%7%5%3%1%0.6%0.1%0.0%
26Minnesota State 30%30%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.8%2%3%6%9%9%10%9%9%9%8%7%6%5%4%2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
27Clarkson 3%3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.8%2%3%6%8%10%12%13%12%10%9%6%4%2%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
28Michigan Tech 19%19%0.0%0.1%0.5%2%4%5%7%8%9%9%11%12%11%10%8%3%1%0.4%0.1%
29Merrimack 1%1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.5%1.0%2%3%5%5%8%9%10%11%11%10%9%7%4%2%0.7%0.1%0.0%
30Robert Morris 16%16%0.0%0.1%0.5%1%3%5%6%7%9%11%12%12%12%10%7%3%1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
31Miami 0.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.5%1.0%2%3%4%5%6%7%9%10%12%13%13%8%4%1%0.4%0.1%
32Army 13%13%0.0%0.2%0.8%2%3%4%5%7%9%10%11%11%12%11%7%4%2%1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
33Yale 0.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.8%1%2%3%4%6%7%10%12%15%19%11%6%2%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
34Princeton 0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%1%2%3%4%6%9%11%14%16%13%9%5%3%2%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.0%
35New Hampshire 0.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.7%1%2%3%6%14%18%17%15%12%7%3%1%0.2%0.0%
36Connecticut 0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.5%0.8%1%2%3%5%10%19%17%16%13%8%4%1%0.3%0.1%0.0%
37Colorado College 0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.6%1%3%7%14%16%15%15%12%9%5%2%0.7%0.2%0.0%
38Bentley 3%3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.5%1%2%4%6%10%13%14%13%12%9%7%4%2%1%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%
39Dartmouth 0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.5%1%3%5%7%9%11%14%14%12%9%6%4%2%1%0.6%0.1%0.0%
40Holy Cross 4%4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.9%2%4%8%10%12%14%14%12%9%6%4%2%1%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
41Bowling Green 8%8%0.0%0.1%0.7%2%3%5%7%10%12%15%14%11%7%5%3%2%1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
42Michigan 0.9%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.8%1%3%4%6%8%10%12%12%11%9%7%5%4%3%2%1%0.3%0.0%0.0%
43Sacred Heart 1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%1.0%2%3%5%7%11%14%14%11%8%8%7%5%3%1%0.3%0.0%
44Mercyhurst 2%2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.7%1%2%4%7%10%13%12%11%11%10%9%6%3%0.8%0.0%
45Arizona State 0.0%0.0%0.3%2%7%16%25%24%16%7%2%0.4%0.1%
46Maine 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.7%1%2%4%6%8%9%11%12%13%13%11%6%2%0.4%0.0%
47Colgate 0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.7%1%2%4%6%7%9%10%10%12%12%10%7%5%2%0.4%0.0%
48Lake Superior 2%2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.5%0.8%1%2%2%3%4%5%7%9%12%13%14%13%10%4%0.1%
49RIT 0.5%0.5%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.8%1%3%4%5%5%6%8%11%14%15%14%9%3%0.1%
50Ferris State 3%3%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.9%1%2%2%3%3%4%6%9%12%13%16%17%9%0.5%0.0%
51Michigan State 0.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.5%0.8%1%2%3%3%4%6%8%11%14%17%18%12%0.9%0.0%
52Northern Michigan 2%2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.9%1%1%2%2%4%6%10%15%18%22%15%0.9%0.0%
53Alaska 1%1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.9%2%3%6%11%18%40%13%4%0.8%0.1%
54Alaska-Anchorage 0.0%0.6%12%31%27%18%9%2%0.2%
55American Int'l 0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.6%1%3%25%24%22%17%6%0.6%
56Alabama-Huntsville 0.0%0.4%16%23%25%17%15%4%
57Rensselaer 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%1.0%10%15%19%27%21%6%
58Massachusetts 0.0%0.1%1%4%10%20%34%31%
59Brown 0.0%0.0%0.1%2%3%5%10%22%58%
60Niagara 0.0%0.0%100%

Key
IN - % of simulations in which a team qualified for the NCAA tournament
AL - % qualified as an At Large
AQ - % qualified as an Automatic Qualifier (won the conference tournament in the simulation)
% in red, if any, indicates amount of times team qualified for NCAAs on criteria, but was ineligible by virtue of having a <.500 record.

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