Pairwise Probability Matrix

These are the results of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day. The winner of each game in the simulation was determined randomly, weighted by KRACH. When that simulation was completed -- playing out the six conference tournaments -- a Pairwise was calculated based upon those results. Going into the final weekend, there are 3,145,728 possible combinations of results. While this simulation does not go through each combination, making the result random weighted by KRACH is actually more accurate, in a sense. Either way, these numbers accurately reflect each team's possible finish to a high rate of precision. The numbers in the chart represent the percentage of times (among the total simulations run) each team placed in that spot in the Pairwise. Note that just placing in the top 16 does not indicate the team made it, due to automatic bids (AQ). See the "In" column to determine percentage of simulations in which the team qualified. For more information, see the Pairwise Primer.

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Last updated: March 19, 8:14 am

RK TEAM In AQ 1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
1Quinnipiac100%70%79%6%14%
2St. Cloud State100%69%14%65%21%
3North Dakota100%6%29%65%
4Providence100%100%
5Boston College100%100%
6Denver100%100%
7Michigan100%63%73%20%7%
8Mass.-Lowell100%61%23%65%8%4%
9Boston University100%4%30%65%
10Harvard100%30%4%7%54%34%
11Yale95%33%3%40%24%
12Notre Dame100%33%60%7%
13Minnesota-Duluth90%31%2%29%42%27%
14Northeastern77%39%27%73%
15Cornell62%38%
16Michigan Tech0.5%62%37%
17Minnesota37%37%37%0.3%19%17%26%
18Nebraska-Omaha19%81%
19Robert Morris69%69%43%11%39%7%
20St. Lawrence12%35%53%
21Minnesota State60%60%60%31%9%
22Penn State17%59%23%
23Dartmouth22%41%37%
24Clarkson31%60%9%
25Rensselaer9%9%82%
26Miami100%
27Bowling Green
28Air Force
29Union
30Ferris State40%40%
31Ohio State
32Bemidji State
33Vermont
34Holy Cross
35Northern Michigan
36Mercyhurst
37RIT31%31%
38Merrimack
39New Hampshire
40Wisconsin
41Army
42Colgate
43Western Michigan
44Connecticut
45Lake Superior
46Bentley
47Michigan State
48Sacred Heart
49Brown
50Massachusetts
51Alaska-Anchorage
52Maine
53Alaska
54Canisius
55Colorado College
56Alabama-Huntsville
57Princeton
58Niagara
59Arizona State
60American Int'l

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