Pairwise Probability Matrix

These are the results of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day. The winner of each game in the simulation was determined randomly, weighted by KRACH. When that simulation was completed -- playing out the six conference tournaments -- a Pairwise was calculated based upon those results.

The numbers in the chart represent the percentage of times (among the total simulations run) each team placed in that spot in the Pairwise. Note that just placing in the top 16 does not indicate the team made it, due to automatic bids (AQ).

Please see below the chart for more information.

Last updated: March 18, 7:44 am

RK TEAM In AL AQ 123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960
1Denver 100%100%64%33%3%
2Minnesota-Duluth 100%33%67%36%53%11%
3Harvard 100%36%64%14%86%
4Western Michigan 100%100%54%26%20%
5Minnesota 100%100%35%45%20%
6Boston University 100%100%41%59%
7Mass.-Lowell 100%41%59%11%29%19%18%18%5%
8Union 100%100%18%44%31%7%
9North Dakota 100%67%33%10%16%27%34%13%
10Cornell 100%64%36%14%22%29%35%
11Penn State 100%46%54%23%24%44%8%
12Notre Dame 100%100%24%51%25%
13Air Force 61%61%8%53%13%19%7%
14Providence 81%81%23%52%25%
15Boston College 41%41%15%26%32%27%
16Ohio State 32%32%23%52%25%
17Wisconsin 46%46%10%24%12%54%
18Vermont 54%46%
19Nebraska-Omaha 100%
20St. Cloud State 100%
21Quinnipiac 100%
22Northeastern 100%
23St. Lawrence 69%31%
24Clarkson 61%39%
25Robert Morris 39%39%31%8%26%35%
26Canisius 46%36%19%
27Michigan Tech 58%58%15%39%4%42%
28Minnesota State 42%58%
29Bemidji State 100%
30Merrimack 100%
31Miami 100%
32Yale 100%
33Princeton 70%30%
34Connecticut 57%42%0.4%
35New Hampshire 39%45%16%
36Bowling Green 42%42%30%12%0.7%57%
37Army 0.3%19%55%26%
38Michigan 57%43%
39Colorado College 100%
40Holy Cross 100%
41Bentley 100%
42Sacred Heart 100%
43Dartmouth 100%
44Arizona State 87%13%
45Mercyhurst 13%87%
46Maine 100%
47Michigan State 95%5%
48Northern Michigan 5%95%
49Ferris State 100%
50Colgate 100%
51RIT 100%
52Alaska 100%
53Lake Superior 100%
54American Int'l 100%
55Rensselaer 100%
56Alabama-Huntsville 100%
57Alaska-Anchorage 100%
58Massachusetts 100%
59Brown 100%
60Niagara 100%

Key
IN - % of simulations in which a team qualified for the NCAA tournament
AL - % qualified as an At Large
AQ - % qualified as an Automatic Qualifier (won the conference tournament in the simulation)
% in red, if any, indicates amount of times team qualified for NCAAs on criteria, but was ineligible by virtue of having a <.500 record.

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